Reviews and debates on my book Dumbing Down the Courts is available here.
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
Monday, September 29, 2014
Possibly this would have gotten more attention if this promise had been made on the English networks and not on a channel for Spanish speakers. From The Hill newspaper:
President Obama will “make good” on his promise to implement eexecutive actions on immigration by the end of the year, press secretary Josh Earnest said Sunday. . . .
“This is a promise the president will keep,” Earnest said during an appearance on Telemundo’s “Enfoque con Jose Diaz-Balart.” “The president has tasked his team with looking at the law and determining what kind of executive authority he can use to try to address the problems of our broken immigration system. They've come up with some good solutions. They will be finalized before the end of the year and the president will announce them before the end of the year.” . . .
The White House has seen a sharp drop in Latino support following his decision to punt on immigration reform. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll earlier this month showed just 47 percent of Hispanic voters approve of the president's performance, down 15 percentage points from April, 2013. Fewer than 3 in 10 Latino voters described themselves as "very positive" about Obama. . . .
When the station's owner was asked about his employee carrying a gun, the owner said what do you expect since Canton is a dangerous place. The article at Action News 19 in Canton is available here.
The Canton Police Department has released surveillance video and 911 calls connected to Monday night's deadly robbery attempt at a Marathon gas station. Two of the suspects were killed, but one is still on the run. . . .
Police say two of the suspects, identified as Antonio Garcia, 23, and Ronnie Lawson, 21, were shot and killed by a clerk at the location.
The shooting followed an attempted robbery and a scuffle with the clerk.
The clerk was shot in the hip and leg during the melee. His injuries are non-life-threatening. The gas station manager says the clerk is recovering well in the hospital.
Police are still searching for a third suspect. He is described as being either black or Hispanic with a thin to medium build. He is the one wearing the white mask in the surveillance picture. Police do not know if he was injured in the shooting. . . .
The clerk has not been charged. . . .
From Agence France-Presse:
Swiss voters on Sunday rejected a plan for a seismic shift from the country's all-private health insurance system to a state-run scheme.
Referendum results showed that almost 62 percent of voters had shot down a reform pushed by left-leaning parties which say the current private system is busting the budgets of ordinary residents.
The results also underlined the national divisions over the hotly-contested issue as the country's German-speaking regions voted against the plan, while their French-speaking counterparts were in favor. . . .
"Our health system is among the top performers in the world. Competition between health insurers and freedom of choice for clients play a major role in this," it added. . . .
Sunday, September 28, 2014
It is pretty amazing how many different places within the state that this state representative votes. But this isn't unusual. for other examples of vote fraud see here or here. From the New Haven Register:
State Rep. Christina “Tita” Ayala, D-Bridgeport, was arrested Friday on 19 voting fraud charges.
Ayala, 31, is accused of voting in local and state elections in districts she did not live, the Chief State’s Attorney’s Office said in a press release.
The arrest warrant affidavit also alleges Ayala provided fabricated evidence to state Election Enforcement Commission investigators that showed she lived at an address in a district where she voted while actually living outside the district, according to the release.
Ayala, who represents the 128th District, was elected in 2012, replacing her cousin, Andres Ayala, who was elected to the state Senate. She chose to run for reelection earlier this year, despite the voting fraud investigation, but lost a four-way primary in August.
The Elections Enforcement Commission referred the case to the Office of the Chief State’s Attorney in October 2013, recommending criminal charges.
Ayala allegedly voted in various Bridgeport Democratic Town Committee elections, a municipal primary election and a state primary election between 2009 and 2012 in districts inconsistent with the location of her residence, according to the release. She is also accused of voting in the Bridgeport state general election in 2012 in a district where she didn’t live. . . .
Friday, September 26, 2014
This disillusionment of liberal Democrats may represent the biggest risk to Democrats this November. From The Hill newspaper:
The growing dissatisfaction on the left could limit Obama's ability to help Democrats in the midterm elections and could threaten his political legacy if — as happened with George W. Bush — his party begins to abandon him.
The slipping support for Obama is most evident in a pair of recent surveys of Democratic strongholds. Just 39 percent of registered New York voters surveyed in a Marist College poll said Obama is doing an "excellent" or "good" job, down six points from June and the lowest level in the state since the beginning of his presidency.
Earlier this month, only 45 percent of California voters said they approved of how Obama was handling his job — a 5 percent decrease from June.
National polls also suggest a growing discontent.
A YouGov survey released last week showed the president’s approval rating at 40 percent, and that among Democrats, Obama had slipped eight points since June. . . .
From The Hill newspaper:
Colorado Democrats are fretting that Sen. Mark Udall’s (D-Colo.) “war on women” battle cry against Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) is starting to sound like a broken record.
After a series of polls this past month have shown the race statistically tied or even with Gardner up, some Democrats are urging Udall to find a new refrain against his opponent, lest Republicans claim the seat in November.
“Gardner gave him a lot to work with on that subject, but a lot people think he may have overdone it,” said one well-connected Democratic operative in the state.
Starting essentially from Gardner’s entry into the race, Udall’s main line of attack on the GOP congressman has been his support for a federal “personhood” measure, which would effectively ban abortion and restrict many forms of birth control. “Gardner gave him a lot to work with on that subject, but a lot people think he may have overdone it,” said one well-connected Democratic operative in the state.
Gardner, however, has said he regretted his past support for the statewide initiative and has also helped mitigate hits against him by coming out for over-the-counter birth control — the first in a string of GOP Senate candidates to do so. . . .
Those tax refunds that people thought that they were getting apparently aren't going to come through. Nice that this timing will be after the election. From USA Today:
Those affected took advance payments of the premium tax credit for health insurance. Some married couples could owe $600 or $1,500 or $2,500 or even more. It might feel like a raw deal for some who are already suffocating under the escalating costs of health insurance.
"Health insurance is confusing enough, and now they're adding the complexities of the Tax Code," said Lorena Bencsik, a member of the Michigan Association of CPAs and owner of Prime Numbers in Ferndale.
When you file that 2014 tax return next year, the Internal Revenue Service will compare your actual income for the year with the amount you estimated when applying for exchange-based health insurance under the health insurance law. . . .
In this case, the shooter was a reserve deputy, but it is still a case where they were very happy that there was a gun in the workplace. From KFOR.com about the attack in Moore, Oklahoma:
Officials with the Moore Police Department say the FBI is now involved in the investigation related to a brutal attack of workers at a food distribution plant.CORRECTION: Vaughan is a concealed handgun permit holder and he is a current, not former, executive at the company.
Sgt. Jeremy Lewis says the alleged suspect, 30-year-old Alton Nolen had just been fired when he drove to the front of the business, hit a vehicle and walked inside.
He walked into the front office area where he met 54-year-old Colleen Hufford and began attacking her with a knife.
Sgt. Lewis confirms the type of knife used in the attack is the same kind used at the plant.
Lewis confirms that Hufford was stabbed several times and that Nolen “severed her head.”
At that point, Lewis claims Nolen met 43-year-old Traci Johnson and began attacking her with the same knife.
Officials say at that point, Mark Vaughan, an Oklahoma County reserve deputy and a former CEO of the business, shot him as he was actively stabbing Johnson.
“He’s, obviously, a hero in this situation,” Sgt. Lewis said, referring to Vaughan. “It could have gotten a lot worse.” . . .
From NewsOK.com:
An 11-year-old girl was called a hero by neighbors Wednesday after she used a handgun to shoot a man who was attacking her mother.
About 4 a.m. Tuesday, Oklahoma City police were called to a home at 3308 SE 89 and found Brandy Moreno, who said she was stabbed by her ex-boyfriend, Leo Henry.
Police said Henry broke into the house and began to attack Moreno until her daughter, Jayda Milsap, 11, shot Henry twice with a handgun. Henry tried to flee from the home after being shot and was found down the street, police said. . . .
Moreno’s neighbor, Carolyn Marsee, said she heard the shots fired by the girl early Wednesday.
“I think she’s a hero,” Marsee said. . . .
The article yesterday in Forbes starts this way and is highly recommended:
With the midterms just over a month away New York City’s former mayor Michael Bloomberg is spending at least $50 million to make his gun-control agenda part of this election. His gun-control group Everytown for Gun Safety has endorsed more than 100 federal and state candidates. They are also running television commercials, holding events and pushing their studies into the newsrooms of a mostly favorable press.
John Feinblatt, Everytown’s president, told USA Today, “We want gun safety to be an issue that people vote on.”
John R. Lott, Jr. says he’s fine with that statement. He just wants people to know the truth about what really reduces violence before they vote. He says, “I can’t find a single study from Bloomberg’s groups that aren’t loaded with errors. They have an anti-gun agenda and will lie to achieve it.”
Before getting to the inside story behind the politics, the piles of money being used to shape public opinion and to how the truth is stubbornly winning the debate despite—or because of—Bloomberg’s spin, I’d like to tell you how I first met John R. Lott, Jr. He is an important voice in this debate and this anecdote shows what kind of researcher he is. . . .The rest of the article is available here.
Monday, September 22, 2014
From Politico:
Gabby Giffords, irreproachable figure of sympathy, has fashioned an improbable new role for herself this election year: ruthless attack dog.
The former Democratic congresswoman, whose recovery from a gunshot wound to the head captivated the country, has unleashed some of the nastiest ads of the campaign season, going after GOP candidates in Arizona and New Hampshire with attacks even some left-leaning commentators say go too far. And Republicans on the receiving end are largely helpless to hit back, knowing a fight with the much-admired survivor is not one they’re likely to win.
Some of the toughest spots from Giffords’ newly formed pro-gun-control super PAC, Americans for Responsible Solutions, hammer Republican Martha McSally, a retired Air Force pilot who is running for the Arizona seat Giffords once held. One features a wrenching testimonial from a woman named Vicki who weeps and stumbles over her words as she recounts how her 19-year-old daughter was hunted down and murdered by an enraged ex-boyfriend. . . .
Giffords’ bare-knuckled approach isn’t entirely out of character. . . .
As Politico notes, even the liberal Arizona Republic’s had strong words condemning the ads in Arizona.
the Arizona Republic’s editorial page, which is typically liberal leaning, called the “Vicki” ad “base and vile.” The commercial, the newspaper said, put the murder “at McSally’s feet, as if she were responsible. A murder indictment implied. But, of course, McSally had nothing to do with” the death. . . .
Sunday, September 21, 2014
Family income for the poorest families has fallen continually during the Obama "recovery." Indeed, the drop in family income for those in the 10th and 20th percentiles is larger during the recovery than during the recession. The drop in family income for the 40th percentile and the median is about as large for the recovery as it was during the recession. Only the wealthiest families those in the top 10 percent have seen their incomes go up, but even then their incomes are lower than before the recession started. The Current Population Survey data is available here.
Take the same time period after the Reagan Recovery started
Saturday, September 20, 2014
This past April when the University of Rhode Island System trustees voted 8-to-1 to let campus police carry guns, you would see stories such as this:
University of Rhode Island campus police will soon carry guns under a policy announced Monday, ending the school’s status as the only public university in the country where campus police do not carry firearms. . . .This is where we stand now:
The University of Rhode Island has begun training campus police officers to carry guns after a controversial decision in April to arm the campus police force.
Public Safety Stephen Baker says the goal is to have all 27 campus officers carrying guns by the start of the Spring semester.
"State police have completed 17 of the background checks and they’ve been delivered to us. The next step in that process is to have those officers go through psychological examinations," Baker said. "Then we’ll begin the actual firearms training, and that’s planned for the month of October."
The officers participated in preliminary firearms training in August. URI has ordered and started receiving the semi-automatic handguns they will carry, which are similar to those carried by State Police.
In addition to the gun training, URI police and some other staff have received special training to recognize and handle mental health issues. The university is also finalizing plans for an addition to its public safety facility, which will house the firearms. . . .If this is so controversial, why is it that every other public university system in the country has armed campus police and that none of them are reconsidering that decision? The police here are very important, but they still have limitations. Since the police are in uniform, they will actually be the first ones to be attacked if terrorists were ever to strike. That is one of the benefits of permitted concealed handguns.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
More evidence that deterrence works.
Click on figures to make them larger.
It is possible that some of the thieves have switched from iPhones to Samsung devices. Of course, it is possible that cell phone thefts were increasing generally and that the ability to lock the iPhones caused their thefts to decline. From a report by the San Francisco District Attorney:
. . . In New York City, thefts of iPhones fell significantly after release of Apple’s Activation Lock. In the first five months of 2014, just after Apple introduced Activation Lock, robberies and grandlarcenies from a person involving Apple products dropped, respectively, by 19 percent and 29 percent, compared to the same time period in the previous year. This is shown in the chart below. The decrease in Apple thefts far surpassed the overall decrease in robberies (-10%) and grand larcenies from a person (-18%). Perhaps most tellingly, both robberies and grand larcenies from a person involving a Samsung smartphone, another popular device, increased by over 40 percent compared to the first five months of 2013.
Crime data from San Francisco and London show that the introduction of Activation Lock likewise corresponded with a decline in iPhone thefts and an increase in thefts of other devices in those cities as well. As reflected in the Chart below, iPhone robberies in San Francisco declined 38 percent, while robberies of Samsung devices increased 12 percent in the six months after Activation Lock compared to the six months prior to Activation Lock. In London, Apple thefts declined by 24 percent, while Samsung thefts increased by three percent in the same time period. . . .
In Lansing, Michigan, Kroger's stood up to Bloomberg's Moms Demand Action and asked them to leave the store. From the Lansing State Journal:
A group protesting Michigan's open-carry gun rules hope a Lansing Kroger store's grand re-opening today will spur a new policy barring guns in the Holmes Street store.
Michigan Kroger representatives said that's not likely. The Cincinnati-based grocery chain is sticking by Michigan law, which doesn't prohibit openly carrying guns in public. Michigan gun owners have to have a concealed-pistol license, however, to carry guns concealed in public.
Kroger's stance won't stop Moms Demand Action's ongoing protests at Kroger stores, however, said Linda Brundage, who heads the group's mid-Michigan chapter. Brundage led a group of about 12 women at this morning's protest.
The group was initially asked to leave the parking lot . . ., but was then invited inside to speak with store management.
"You don't need a gun to buy a box of cereal," Brundage said outside the store. "Kroger would not be breaking any laws by saying to their customers, 'Leave your guns locked in the car.'"
Chris Albi, Kroger's vice president of merchandising for Michigan, said the company's Cincinnati headquarters was aware of today's protest, but isn't expected to change its policy. . . .For more on Bloomberg's push to ban guns in stores and the inaccurate way that the discussions are portrayed in the media follow this link available here.
Thanks to Tony for the link.
This attack is deadlier than the Columbine school shooting. It is deadlier than the Washington Navy Yard or Aurora Movie Theater shootings. In each of those three attacks, 12 people were killed. From Reuters:
Gunmen stormed a higher education college in northern Nigeria on Wednesday, firing on fleeing students and setting off an explosion in an attack that killed at least 15 people and wounded 35, police said. . . . "The attackers were wearing suits and were running and shooting everywhere." . . . At least 82 people were killed in July in a double suicide bombing in the north Nigerian city of Kaduna in July. . . .
From the Washington Times:
Republicans, and even some Democrats, in a dozen states are showing off their shooting skills in videos and television ads or posing with firearms in mailers, underscoring the backlash against federal and state proposals to restrict access to guns and ammunition.
This year’s tone was set by Republican Joni Ernst, who won the Iowa Senate primary in June after running a television ad that shows her firing at a bull’s-eye at a shooting range while promising to “unload” on Obamacare. She now faces Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley.
“Give me a shot,” quips Ms. Ernst in the ad.
The Iowan is by no mean the only one locked, loaded and ready for her close-up. . . .
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
From The Hill newspaper:
Sen. Jack Reed (D-R.I.) introduced S. 2141, the Sunscreen Innovation Act, which would require the Department of Health and Human Services to establish a process for the review and approve over-the-counter (OTC) sunscreens.
The Senate passed the measure through a unanimous consent agreement and it now heads to the House for further action.
The Senate passed H.R. 4751, which renames the Bainbridge Island Japanese American Memorial as the Bainbridge Island Japanese American Exclusion Memorial. The House passed the bill earlier this month, meaning it now heads to President Obama’s desk for his signature before becoming law. . . .
From The Hill newspaper:
. . . “The ATF is a largely duplicative, scandal-ridden agency that lacks a clear mission,” he said. “It is plagued by backlogs, funding gaps, hiring challenges and a lack of leadership. For decades it has been branded by high profile failures.”
The ATF has become a GOP punching bag in recent years after it was revealed the agency lost track of hundreds of guns, some of which ended up in the hands of Mexican drug cartels, part of the infamously botched Operation Fast and Furious.
The Sensenbrenner bill would transfer the agency’s enforcement of firearms, explosives and arson laws to the FBI. ATF would cede jurisdiction over cases involving the illegal diversion of alcohol and tobacco products to the Drug Enforcement Administration. . . .
-- Right before the 2010 midterm elections Obama's approval rate was at 45 percent. Before the 2012 election it was at 50 percent. Today it is at 40 percent.
-- Right before the 2010 midterm elections 34 percent thought that the country was heading in the wrong direction. Before the 2012 election it was at 39 percent. Today it is at 27 percent.
-- At the 2010 midterm elections 46 percent approved of Obama's foreign policy. Before the 2012 election it was at 47 percent. Today it is at 34 percent.
-- Right before the 2010 midterm elections 42 percent approved of Obama's economic policy. Before the 2012 election it was at 46 percent. Today it is at 40 percent.
-- Before the 2010 midterm elections 51 percent approved of Obama's terrorism policy. Today it is at 41 percent.
-- Today 30 percent approve of how Obama is handling immigration.
If this election is viewed as a referendum on Obama's policies, Democrats have reasons to be concerned.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
From the Independent (UK) newspaper:
. . . “I am totally for gun control in the US,” he says. “The population of America is roughly 300 million and there are 300 million guns in this country, which is terrifying. Every day we’re seeing some kid running rampant in a school. And do you know what the gun lobby’s response to Newtown was?” he asks, referring to the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, which left 20 children dead in December 2012.
“The National Rifle Association’s official response was ‘If that teacher had been armed…’ It’s crazy. I’ll give Britain its dues, when they had the Dunblane massacre in Scotland, within 24 hours the gun laws were changed so you could not have a handgun.”
Born in Ballymena, County Antrim, but a resident of New York, Neeson became a US citizen five years ago in the wake of the death of his wife, Natasha Richardson, in a freak skiing accident in 2009. The actor cites the outpouring of goodwill from Americans as one of the main reasons for his decision. Part of the naturalisation process involves a test on US civics; Neeson, therefore, understands the Constitution as well as anyone. “It is the right to bear arms which is the problem. I think if the Founding Fathers knew what was happening they would be turning in their graves with embarrassment at how that law has been interpreted,” he says, in reference to the Second Amendment to the Constitution. . . .Mr. Neeson is of course wrong about what the NRA proposed. I have proposed allowing staff at school to be armed, but the NRA has wanted to have armed guards.
Monday, September 15, 2014
Data on the number of permits currently issued in Alabama counties is shown below. The state has a total of approximately 470,005 permits, about 12.6% of the population over 18 years of age. A couple of the counties have more than 18 percent of their adult population with permits.
The article in al.com notes that Alabama is number 1 in terms of the number of concealed handgun permits, but it is very likely that the six states that allow carrying without a permit have higher rates that people are carrying (Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Montana (99.4% of the state), Wyoming, and Vermont). It would have been nice if the article had provided some balance and noted what most of the literature had found on crime rates. Donohue's claims about my work hadn't accounted for the impact of crack cocaine is simply disingenuous (for discussions in the 3rd edition of More Guns, Less Crime see here and here, but it was dealt with in my original research with David Mustard and the first edition of More Guns, Less Crime).
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch article lists school superintendents who are against guns in school, but notice that it doesn't say that all the St. Louis-area school superintendents are against let people protect the children. From the article:
Many St. Louis-area school superintendents say they don’t want guns in their schools regardless of a new state law that allows designated teachers to carry them.
The law lets school districts appoint teachers or administrators as “school safety officers” who would be allowed to carry concealed weapons after training.
Gov. Jay Nixon vetoed this bill in July. But on Wednesday, the Legislature overrode his veto of gun rights expansion legislation that also allows residents with concealed weapons permits to openly carry guns in public.
Parents contacted the Clayton School District late last week concerned that teachers could soon be carrying weapons through the hallways.
“There’s the perception that school districts are required to do this, rather than allowed to do this,” district spokesman Chris Tennill said.
The district’s position was posted on its website Friday afternoon. “There are few, if any, situations that would require the District to consider appointing ‘school protection officers’ given the level of and proximity to law enforcement resources already in place,” it stated. . . . .
Bloomberg's groups have been pushing for sometime to get businesses to ban guns in their facilities. On Monday, Panera Bread announced that it was asking customers not to bring guns to its restaurants" ((314) 984-1000). But much of the media coverage has been misleading and simply asking people not to bring their guns with them won't have any legal effect. The question is if Panera Bread will be posting signs and it doesn't appear to be the case. Still, that gives Bloomberg's groups another PR boast. From CNBC:
"We are thrilled that after months of discussions between Panera and Moms Demand Action, Panera is taking a proactive position in favor of our families' safety by putting a new gun policy in place. Moms are the consumers-in-chief of our households and we will reward companies that take a stand for our families' safety. We urge other national companies follow suit," said Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, in an email. . . .
Yet, note that as in all the other announcements that Bloomberg's groups have been trumpeting for sometime, this new announcement changes absolutely nothing. From CNNMoney:
The news is another victory for gun safety group Moms Demand Action . . . The company first announced the decision during a CNBC interview with Panera CEO Ron Shaich. He said during the interview that the company would not post anti-gun signs in its stores or require employees to confront gun owners. . . .
Given this, what exactly is the point of the news stories on this announcement? The company is asking people not to bring guns with them, but it also is going to continue allowing people to bring their guns with them. So how is this a victory for Bloomberg's groups? Bloomberg's groups are now spending "six figures" in ads to force Kroger to also announce that they are not welcoming people who carry guns. You can see their ads here.
Original data available here. The number of insider trading cases increased from 6 a year under President George W. Bush to 15 a year under President Obama. The big increase in cases under Obama didn't come until 2011, which isn't surprising as it takes some time after a case is brought before a sentence is determined. This bodes ill for the increase over cases during the rest of the Obama administration. Some economists have questioned whether there should even be insider trading laws. The arbitrariness of what is considered insider trading makes it so that government can often invent crimes after the fact.
Saturday, September 13, 2014
This young man has helped design a computerized wheelchair that allows users to better control how the wheelchair operates. It sound like a great idea. But in listening to this piece at the WSJ I was surprised that the FDA had to approve the wheelchair before it could be produced. Is the FDA soon going to regulate any type of chair that the disabled might sit in? What happens if someone with disabilities sits in an unapproved chair? Will the FDA SWAT team descend on the house?
Friday, September 12, 2014
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
This story won't be a surprise for those who have followed the CPRC (or here). In California, concealed carry permit holders are allowed to carry on school property if they have approval of the school superintendent, which it would be too surprising for Vice Principal to obtain. From KBAK/KBFX in Bakersfield, California:
A Tevis Junior High School administrator who was arrested and subsequently released last month after bringing a gun to school has filed a claim against the city of Bakersfield and its police department, according to his attorney Daniel Rodriguez.
Kent Williams, 51, vice principal at the school since 2010, said he was falsely arrested by BPD officers for bringing the handgun to school, because he has a valid concealed-weapons permit and showed it to them before the arrest was made.
"Me, being a law abiding citizen, that was the first time I had ever been exposed to handcuffs," Williams said. "I was frightened and scared out of my mind."
Rodriguez said his client brought the gun to school for safety reasons.
He said several laws were violated by the arrest on behalf of the department, which later released Williams from custody.
Police said it was initially believed that Williams may have violated the California Gun Free Zone Act but said the vice principal likely did not break any laws because of his valid concealed-carry firearms permit, which was issued by Kern County. . . .
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
Stu Rothenberg in Roll Call predicts "at least 7 seats" for the Republicans in the Senate:
Meanwhile, a new ABC/Washington Post poll shows most Americans view Obama as a "failure." That is a pretty tough way to phrase things.
While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.From Gallup:
But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain. . . .
Of the seven Romney Democratic seats up this cycle, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia are gone, and Arkansas and Louisiana look difficult to hold. Alaska and North Carolina, on the other hand, remain very competitive, and Democrats rightly point out that they have a chance to hold both seats.
But I’ve witnessed 17 general elections from my perch in D.C., including eight midterms, and I sometimes develop a sense of where the cycle is going before survey data lead me there. Since my expectations constitute little more than an informed guess, I generally keep them to myself.
This year is different. I am sharing them with you.
After looking at recent national, state and congressional survey data and comparing this election cycle to previous ones, I am currently expecting a sizable Republican Senate wave. . . .
“Americans indicate that these negative attitudes will increase their probability of voting this fall, and history suggests it is more likely that Democrats than Republicans will suffer as a result, given Democratic control of the White House."Of course, there is also Nate Silver giving Republicans a 65.1% probability of taking over the Senate.
Meanwhile, a new ABC/Washington Post poll shows most Americans view Obama as a "failure." That is a pretty tough way to phrase things.
There are a couple of pollsters such as Sabato and Cook who say that there isn't evidence of the wave yet, but Rothenberg's comments deal with that perspective.
UPDATE: The Hill has this on the newest NBC News and the Wall Street Journal poll.
Republicans hold a two-point lead nationwide on which party registered voters want to see in control of Congress, and that lead expands to 10 points in the Senate battleground states at 50 percent to 40 percent in the poll, conducted by Democratic polling firm Hart Research and Republican pollster Public Opinion Strategies.
"With 56 days until Election Day, our poll provides greater insight into what is likely to happen, and the news is not good for the Democrats," Democratic pollster Fred Yang writes in an accompanying memo. . . .
Sunday, September 7, 2014
More on the story from WISN.com TV:
Police in Milwaukee say the person shot during a robbery attempt Monday was a teen with a long arrest record.
Police said a group of people attempted to rob another group of people near South Second Street and National Avenue early Monday morning. Investigators said one of the would-be victims produced a gun and shot one of the would-be robbers.
VIDEO: Police: Teen shot, killed early Monday part of crime spree
Lt. Mark Stanmeyer said the shooting victim was a 15-year-old boy that he called "a known gang member" who had a lengthy arrest record including armed robbery and auto theft.
Stanmeyer said the shooting victim had also been shot in an incident on Aug. 1
Police said the 30-year-old West Allis man who shot the teen was taken into police custody and released. He has been ordered to report to the District Attorney's Office at a future date.
Stanmeyer said five people were arrested and are believed to have been part of dozens of Milwaukee-area robberies over the past three days. Stanmeyer said the ages of those arrested range from 14-18 years. . . .
Brookings is the old line liberal think tank in Washington, DC. It isn't too surprising that the New York Times would have a lot of connections with Brookings. Those connections have done a lot of damage to Brookings. Here is just a few of the examples in the piece:
Qatar, the small but wealthy Middle East nation, agreed last year to make a $14.8 million, four-year donation to Brookings, which has helped fund a Brookings affiliate in Qatar and a project on United States relations with the Islamic world.
Some scholars say the donations have led to implicit agreements that the research groups would refrain from criticizing the donor governments.
“If a member of Congress is using the Brookings reports, they should be aware — they are not getting the full story,” said Saleem Ali, who served as a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar and who said he had been told during his job interview that he could not take positions critical of the Qatari government in papers. “They may not be getting a false story, but they are not getting the full story.” . . .
“I am surprised, quite frankly, at how explicit the relationship is between money paid, papers published and policymakers and politicians influenced,” Amos Jones, a Washington lawyer who has specialized in the foreign agents act, said after reviewing transactions between the Norway government and Brookings, the Center for Global Development and other groups. . . .
The Brookings Institution, which also accepted grants from Norway, has sought to help the country gain access to U.S. officials, documents show. One Brookings senior fellow, Bruce Jones, offered in 2010 to reach out to State Department officials to help arrange a meeting with a senior Norway official, according to a government email. The Norway official wished to discuss his country’s role as a “middle power” and vital partner of the United States.
Brookings organized another event in April 2013, in which one of Norway’s top officials on Arctic issues was seated next to the State Department’s senior official on the topic and reiterated the country’s priorities for expanding oil exploration in the Arctic. . . .
With Labour holding 40 of the 59 Scottish seats in the UK parliament, Scottish independence is going to dramatically transform British politics. Forty seats out of 325 needed for a majority and the most recent polls showing a slight majority of Scots in favor of independence, the Labour Party is in disaster mode, with Labour MPs flocking to Scotland to convince voters there not to vote for independence.
A lot of the purported fears about Scottish independence are pretty weak. Take the claim that new Scottish government won't be able to continue to share the pound with the rest of the UK in a formal currency union. There is a simple what that Scotland can do that without any help from the UK government. Just look at how Panama and China used to link their currencies to the US Dollar. Both countries committed to exchanging their currencies at a specific rate to the dollar.v
If this independence occurs, it will put the Conservatives in England and Wales in office for years. It will probably also make the party more conservative as the party has room to compete with the UK Independence Party. Scotland has been a strong supporter of the EU, so Scottish independence would probably doom what ever chance there was of defeating the referendum that Cameron has promised in 2017. My guess is that all this also means that England will be a much stronger ally of the US.
A lot of the purported fears about Scottish independence are pretty weak. Take the claim that new Scottish government won't be able to continue to share the pound with the rest of the UK in a formal currency union. There is a simple what that Scotland can do that without any help from the UK government. Just look at how Panama and China used to link their currencies to the US Dollar. Both countries committed to exchanging their currencies at a specific rate to the dollar.v
If this independence occurs, it will put the Conservatives in England and Wales in office for years. It will probably also make the party more conservative as the party has room to compete with the UK Independence Party. Scotland has been a strong supporter of the EU, so Scottish independence would probably doom what ever chance there was of defeating the referendum that Cameron has promised in 2017. My guess is that all this also means that England will be a much stronger ally of the US.
Saturday, September 6, 2014
From Fox News Insider:
Joseph Palumbo, owner of the Albion Gun Shop in Albion, New York, was forced by state police to hand over 165 customer records or risk having his store raided.
Palumbo spoke to Tucker Carlson this morning on Fox and Friends Weekend and explained that the police said they were looking for anyone who had purchased a modified AR-15 rifle.
Although the police did not have a written order to seize the customer records, Palumbo said they made it clear there was the imminent threat of a SWAT team raid of his store, so he complied and handed over the records. . . .
"We had been told by the state police that this modification was legal over a year ago," said Palumbo, who has hired an attorney specializing in the Second Amendment. . . .
Will voters realize that Obama is just delaying amnesty until after the when voters can punish him for amnesty? It is hard to believe that this trick could really protect Democrats from any fallout, but Obama is sure going to try. From Politico:
President Barack Obama has one person to blame for looking indecisive, dithering and cowed by bungled political calculations: Barack Obama.
He’s the one, after all, who strode into the Rose Garden on June 30 to announce that America couldn’t wait forever on immigration reform and pledging to move forward with a set of executive actions “before the end of summer.” He’s the one who spent that afternoon lighting into Republicans in Congress for punting and punting and punting again.
Now he’s the one punting.
Obama, appearing on “Meet the Press,” attributed his decision to punt immigration reform action until after Election Day to making “sure that the t’s are crossed and the i’s are dotted,” or “getting all our ducks in a row,” on the legal side and needing to spend some more time explaining himself to the American public. . . .
Friday, September 5, 2014
Why won't Senator Gillibrand name the names of Senators who supposedly engaged in sexual harassment? Gillibrand wants to have it both ways. She wants to have the publicity from claiming the incidents occurred but she doesn't want to actually let the people who supposedly did this defend themselves. Unfortunately, Howard Kurtz doesn't go quite far enough on this discussion. He assumes that her claims are true (and they may be), but what if they aren't? What if she is making up claims just to help herself out politically?
UPDATE: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) comes to the same conclusion that I did.
Johnson said members should have a chance to defend themselves, after Gillibrand detailed instances in a forthcoming book where she said some colleagues referred to her as "fat,” "porky” and “chubby.”
"Well, if you are going to throw out accusations, my guess is you probably ought to name names," Johnson said on NewsMax TV. "If you are going to throw around those kind of accusations, you ought to give people a chance to defend themselves." . . .
What possible reasonable justification could the Obama administration have for not providing contact information for a former employee? From Fox News:
A top House Republican is demanding the Department of Justice hand over contact information on a former employee accused of having a conflict of interest in the IRS targeting scandal investigation.
In a Sept. 3 letter, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, once again asked Attorney General Eric Holder for information on Andrew Strelka’s whereabouts.
“Despite notifying [Oversight and Government Reform] Committee staff that the [Justice] Department no longer employs Mr. Strelka, the department has refused to assist the committee in speaking to Mr. Strelka directly,” Jordan wrote. “The department’s efforts to prevent the committee from learning Mr. Strelka’s whereabouts suggest the department has cause for keeping him from speaking with the committee.”
Jordan says he wants Strelka’s contact information so the Oversight Committee can conduct a transcribed interview. The letter gives Holder a Friday deadline for the information. . . .
US Attorney General Eric Holder is still trying to go after George Zimmerman. Dragging out the legal case like this over years imposes massive costs on George Zimmerman -- not only does it impose legal costs on him, but it makes it very difficult for him to plan his life. Holder's actions here are a real criminal penalty that are being imposed on Zimmerman. Either charge Zimmerman with something or eventually let go of the case. From Grabien.com:
Here is another clip from the same press conference about how the federal government can use its massive resources to make life difficult for a small town, when it appears that Holder made up his mind before any evidence was actually collected. Others have noted how Holder “is personally invested in" the Ferguson case, having put in “more than 40 FBI agents on the ground." Holder has publicly spoken out about what he perceived of as police hassling him when he was younger, though the evidence that those incidents actually involved race was never provided. What is extraordinary here is that the local prosecutor is a Democrat and Holder clearly doesn't trust him to do a reasonable job. From Grabien.com:
REPORTER: “There is a big announcement that you made years ago about the investigation in Trayvon Martin shooting. Have you ever finished that civil rights investigation? Are you ever going to finish that?”
HOLDER: “That investigation is ongoing. In fact, in anticipation of that question, I was asked — I asked, give me, you know, the best we can where do we stand. That matter is ongoing. There are active steps we are still in the process of taking. There are witnesses who we want to speak to as a result of some recent development. So that matter is still underway.”From Politico:
Attorney General Eric Holder acknowledged Thursday that even as his department has been opening new investigations stemming from the racially-charged shooting death of African-American teenager Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo. last month, federal prosecutors have still not concluded a long-pending probe into the shooting death of another black teen, Trayvon Martin, in Florida in 2012.
Last November, Holder told the Washington Post he expected a conclusion "relatively soon" to the probe into the shooting of Martin by neighborhood watch volunteer George Zimmerman. In July 2013, a Florida jury acquitted Zimmerman was acquitted of murder. Holder promptly announced that the Justice Department would probe the case to see if prosecution on federal charges was warranted. . . .
Experts and former prosecutors have said they are very doubtful the Justice Department will file a federal criminal case against Zimmerman, although his acquittal on state charges does not legally preclude doing so. . . .So despite "experts and former prosecutors" saying it is doubtful that federal criminal charges will be brought against Zimmerman, the Obama administration continues harassing Zimmerman.
Here is another clip from the same press conference about how the federal government can use its massive resources to make life difficult for a small town, when it appears that Holder made up his mind before any evidence was actually collected. Others have noted how Holder “is personally invested in" the Ferguson case, having put in “more than 40 FBI agents on the ground." Holder has publicly spoken out about what he perceived of as police hassling him when he was younger, though the evidence that those incidents actually involved race was never provided. What is extraordinary here is that the local prosecutor is a Democrat and Holder clearly doesn't trust him to do a reasonable job. From Grabien.com:
REPORTER: “Mr. Attorney General, can you give us a little more texture on why you decided to launch this investigation? Your own conversations there — you talk about review of documented allegations. Give us the universe of what went into this.”
MORAN: “We looked at a number of things in our initial and preliminary assessment and whether or not to open the investigation. It included not only discussions that the Attorney General had with residents of Ferguson two weeks ago but also, other meetings that the Civil rights division and Community relations service and other Justice Department officials have had with residents. We’ve looked of course at public records and other pieces of information that are available to make an assessment that this was indeed an appropriate opening for a pattern and practice investigation. Moreover, the civil rights division met with city leaders in Ferguson yesterday and they expressed a strong willingness to assist us, and in fact were extremely open to this investigation. So we will have cooperation from our local residents.”
REPORTER: “What public records are we talking about?”
MORAN: “There are a number of pieces of information that we looked at which would have included demographics and public records related to cases that may have been filed by private litigants. There are a number of different things we looked at.”
REPORTER: “Mr. Attorney General, what about your visit struck you to the point where you felt comfortable able to move forward with the investigation? And then secondly, what do you say to supporters of the police that this investigation is premature and in fact unfair to the police department?”
HOLDER: “Well, I would say that, as Molly said, the assistant attorney general said, the decision to go ahead was based not only on what I heard while I was out there, which was fairly compelling, and there was a certain continuity in similarities and the kinds of things that I was hearing whether it’s the traffic stops, revenue raising on the basis of traffic stopped; traffic stops that occurred in certain parts of the area. But in addition to that and in response to the earlier question, there has been a review of documentary evidence indicating that there are problems. I do not think there is any question that there is a basis to begin a pattern or practice of investigation. So with regard to those who might be concerned that we are somehow being premature, all we are saying at this point is we are opening an investigation to see whether or not there are in fact problems. I think the fact that we have pledges of local cooperation is an indication that there are issues felt even there at the local level, indicating the need for us to work together to make the situation better. But I want to emphasize, as I said in the prepared remarks, the vast majority of the people who serve — the American people in a law enforcement capacity in this country do so honorably, do so quite well. The vast majority of police departments do so, I think, quite well. But where we find problems, it is incumbent upon us given our statutory responsibilities to use federal law to make sure that in fact occurs.”
REPORTER: “[indecipherable] You know, this is the same when we read a lot of stuff and you said there is no question that there is justification for opening it. But, I mean, it just sounds like, we talk to people, we read some stuff. But what specifically? Are there cases that specifically predicated the opening of this?”
HOLDER: “[indecipherable] when you say, we read a lot of stuff. I mean, that’s kind of what we do. You know —“ [crosstalk]
REPORTER: “There is no question, but there is no question to you. But for people who do not know what you read and don’t know what you’re looking at, what specifically have you seen that said, yes, we have to open this investigation?”
HOLDER: “Molly maybe can get into more of the specifics, but there are variety of documents and materials that are contained in the public record that exists about the percentages of stops that occurred that involve certain ethnic groups and whether those are consistent with the numbers of people who make up the population. There were whole variety of things that you all have reported on that I think given us a good factual basis to proceed.”
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